Nifty Future Price Action 28 September 2012

On the back of positive global cues Nifty Future opened gap up. As there was a double bottom on expiry day at strong support of 5648. There was an expectation that Nifty Spot would end the consolidation and break out of the 5720 top. The gap up open lead to a spike and channel trend and Nifty Spot managed to break out above the 5720 level but encountered heavy selling at 5730. The 5730 level was the channel high of the trend channel line drawn from 5348 swing high to the previous 5720 top. The price started to form a bull flag or wedge which transformed into a tight trading range with bottom at the Nifty Spot level of 5720. The breakout failures at corresponding Nifty Spot level of 5720 was weak and Nifty Future fell sharply below the 5720 level but the Nifty Spot level of 5700 provided good support. Nifty Future with a 2 leg pullback attempted to break the Nifty Spot 5700 level. When this attempt failed there was a third push up that resulted in a breakout failure of the trading range low (i.e. Nifty Spot 5720). This break out failure lead to the break of the 5700 Nifty Spot level

Nifty Future Price Action 27 September 2012

Today was expiry day and despite weak global cues Nifty Future opened gap at the Big Round Number 5700. The first two bars were big bear trend bars that brought Nifty Future below the Previous Day high. Nifty Future broke out of the Previous Day high and in a tight upward channel that had started from the Previous day moved till the days high and the opening price of Nifty Future.  Lack of buying at the days high resulted the resumption of the morning session bearishness. Nifty Future broke the days low and tested the Previous Day low and tested the Nifty Spot level of 5648 and closed above it. Today despite being a expiry day there was increased volatility and very good trade entries

Nifty Future Price action 26 September 2012

Reflecting Weak Global cues Nifty Future opened gap down and the first bar was a big bear trend bar that acted as a trading range. This down move could be considered as a continuation of the previous day downward channel and the gap down open as a trend channel overshoot. Price moved back into the downward channel and drifted down to a new low. The break of the Initial Range low and the Trend channel line overshoot lead to a reversal that went all the way till the days high. Here selling pressure resulted in a double top and a closing near the days opening price

Nifty Future Price Action 25th September 2012

Nifty Future opened in a Bullish Note a continuation of the Previous days down ward trend line break. Nifty Future faced a strong reversal in the first hour of trade and moved below the Previous Day Low. The sentiment changed from mildly bullish to Bearish. Nifty Future settled in a tight trading range below the Previous day low. When a breakout to down side failed. Nifty Future resumed the morning session up move. Nifty Future faced resistance at the big round number 5700 and had a deep 3 push pullback that tested the Previous Day low.

Nifty Future Price Action 20th September 2012

Nifty opened gap down below the Previous Day Low and the first bar was a strong Bull trend bar with a shaved head. There was follow through buying that took Nifty Future till a high of 5578. Nifty Future pulled back to 5568 and established a swing low and started to move up in a spike and trend channel. Nifty Future reversed at 5390 just short of the Previous Day Low.  Nifty Future broke the upward trend line and reversed in tight downward sloping channel. Nifty Future transitioned into a trading range at the support from where the 3rd leg push started. At this major swing point Nifty Future had two breakout failures that lead to a second attempt at the Previous Day low. Nifty Future had two breakout failures at the Major Swing High that resulted in a sharp down move that started at 2:40pm till the close. The down move was very strong and did not give any meaningful pullback.

Nifty Future Price Action 18th September 2012

Nifty Future opened at the previous day close and continued the previous days price action. But close to the Big Round Number of 5600 Nifty Future rejected this price sharply and moved above the previous day swing high of 5620. Nifty Future failed to move up till any decision point and spent the rest of the day trying to take out the days open. Nifty Future started moving in a downward channel but after the failure to take out the days low. Nifty Future price drifted into a sideways channel. There were a number of strong trend bars but it lacked follow through in both directions. A trading range day with plenty of breakout failures. All trade opportunities today was on breakout failures.

Nifty Future Price Action 17 Sep 2012

Due to strong overnight cues Nifty Spot opened above the Swing high of 5630. On open there was a strong selloff below the Nifty Spot 5630 level. After the RBI announcement of no rate cuts, the down move resumed till the previous days high. As per the price action setup there was only one good short trade setup. The up move started on weak signal bars and did not have deep pullback for long trade entries. Nifty Future closed the gap but did not fall in the previous days trading range.

Nifty Future Price Action 14 Sep 2012

Nifty Future opened with huge gap up and proceeded to move up on high volumes. This was due to strong Global and Domestic cues. Inflation data was expected which may cause a dampener to the bullish sentiment. A day which opened in a strong note became sluggish due to high inflation data and closed at the level where it was prior to the announcement of the Inflation Data. I have given below the 5-min candlestick chart with my observations.

Nifty Future Price Action 13 Sep 2012

Today was at best do not trade day as Nifty was locked in a severe Bear and Bull fight. It could have transitioned to a big move day had there been a clear winner. One indication of it being a trading range day was lackluster traded volume. But volume does tend to pick up when either the Bulls or Bears lose and the stop losses gets triggered. As trader we have to enter position at high probability trades and wait for the market to play out.

Nifty Future Price Action 12 Sep 2012

The day turned out to be very interesting with two news event outcomes. Nifty Future remained range bound till the IIP Data announcement. On the IIP Data announcement Nifty Future spiked to the days low and sharply recovered. The second attempt of the Bears was more stronger and took out the days low and the upward trend line convincingly. Then the positive news flow of the German Court ruling had a bullish price spike that reversed Nifty Future back to the Days high. Bears again quickly slammed Nifty Future back to the Days low. But Bulls stole the show and strongly closed Nifty Future above the Days high. I have outlined the candle stick bars that have proved to be the turning point to this Bull and Bear saga.

Nifty Price Action 11 - Sep - 2012

Nifty Future opened weak with gap down on poor global cues but moved above the days open. The first attempt to move above the Previous day low failed but after testing the days low Nifty Future successfully moved above the Previous Day’s low. I have given below the 5-min candle stick chart with my observations about the crucial candle stick bars that would give an insight into today’s price action and trade opportunities.

Nifty Future Price Action - 10 Sep 2012

Nifty opened near Saturday’s close due to lack of Global and domestic cues. Nifty Future on open displayed bearish strength that moved it till Saturdays opening price. I have given below the 5-min candle stick chart with my observations about the crucial candle stick bars that would give an insight into today’s price action and trade opportunities.