Interesting comments on First Post article on how hype killed substance (IAC press conference)

Below is an extract of the comments posted in the First Post. I have modified it, to read it completely visit the link posted above. Why the move from a civil society to political party has damaged the Jan Lokpal movement.

The Civil society movements had for the first time in our History had come out with a good attempt to convict the corrupt and raised a lot of issues for debate. But the move to form a political party has damaged this movement and moved from substance to hype.

The problem with IAC's maximalist Janlokpal is that it seeks to create an unelected body (the Lokpal) which will have sweeping powers over the elected legislature, the elected executive and even the judiciary. This should make the skin of any true (and mature) democrat crawl. We need a less draconian Lokpal law that does not create an unelected body even more powerful than the three pillars of the elected legislative, the elected executive and the judiciary in our democracy.

It is the simple concept of separation of powers that holds constitutional frameworks and democratic structures together. We need a separate National Judicial Commission to deal with corruption in Judiciary instead of clubbing it inside an all-powerful God-like Lokpal. The citizens' charter must be made separate from the Lokpal and dealt with a separate body, else the institution of the Lokpal will simply be flooded with too much work and become essentially useless.

There should be a proper collegium that appoints the top members of these important bodies like the CVC, CAG, EC, the future Lokpal, etc., instead of just the President (who must constitutionally do what his sole advisor, the PM, suggests).

An autonomous CBI for anti-corruption cases only is a good idea. It can either be made possible through the Lokpal route or by giving investigation and prosecution wings to the existing constitutional body CVC with necessary amendments to empower the latter.

From a civil society movement a leftist political ideology of Kejriwal and Bhushan has emerged to reap political dividends. Kejriwal has been feeding lies like "only we are correct and pro-aam aadmi, and everybody else is wrong and anti-aam aadmi" kind of untruths. They have been peddling Jan Lokpal as a snake-oil a cure for all ailments.

In Singur and Nandigram, Mamata had out-Marxed the Marxists. Now it seems Kejriwal will out-Mamata Mamata herself! It is indeed pitiful, that even more than 300 years after the worldwide industrial revolution (that made the western world prosperous and developed), industrialization is still a topic of "debate" in India! What the entire world realizes and takes for granted, is still a matter of politics in India. Somebody needs to drill it into the leftist, that industrialization is a GOOD thing.

It is GOOD if land is acquired to set up factories, power plants, industries, SEZs, etc. It is GOOD if India (and Indians) move out of agriculture towards manufacturing and services! An elected Arvind Kejriwal will cause more harm and destruction to India socially, politically and economically. If it were up to the leftists, everybody should just give up their cities, cars and careers, and head back to the villages in bullock carts to take up farming.

On a personal note, as a one-time supporter of Arvind Kejriwal, this pitiful decline in his crusades has been saddening. From a perfectly legitimate and important anti-corruption movement for a strong Janlokpal law, he has moved to a typical far-leftist anti-power-plant and anti-economic-development rants. And for  what? Just for those usual poor-illiterate-rural votebanks that the other leftist parties of India chase after?

Nifty Future Price Action 4 October 2012

Backed by strong domestic cues Nifty Future opened gap up and moved in a strong up move that broke the Nifty Future level of 5800 and paused at Nifty Spot level of 4800. The morning session spike transformed into a Bull Flag which after 3 push down started to move up in a channel trend. Price made a spike – 3 push Bull Flag – channel trend. Price was in a tight upward channel for 20 points. A trend channel overshoot and a strong single bar bear trend reversal resulted in a pullback that broke below the Initial Range low.  This resulted in  a breakout failure and Nifty Future crawled back above the Initial Range low.

Nifty Future Price Action 3 October 2012

Nifty Future opened gap up on supportive global cues. But on open price tested the Previous Day high with a sharp fall.  Nifty Future recovered and started an up move in a rising wedge pattern which reversed the up move at the days high. Nifty Future fall met with congestion at crucial levels. This was a sign of building buying pressure. Although Nifty Future made a lower low it recovered and started a stronger second attempt that took Nifty Future to new highs.

Nifty Future Price Action 1 October 2012

Despite weak global cues and the previous days down move towards the closing of trading session. Nifty Future opened above the Previous Days Close and started to move in a very slightly sloping tight upward channel. The first attempt of Bears to break the upward channel resulted in a breakout failure and price moved to a more steeper and wider upward channel. The bullish trend was weak but bears were not present most of time. Maybe as tomorrow is a holiday the price action was subdued.

Nifty Future Price Action 28 September 2012

On the back of positive global cues Nifty Future opened gap up. As there was a double bottom on expiry day at strong support of 5648. There was an expectation that Nifty Spot would end the consolidation and break out of the 5720 top. The gap up open lead to a spike and channel trend and Nifty Spot managed to break out above the 5720 level but encountered heavy selling at 5730. The 5730 level was the channel high of the trend channel line drawn from 5348 swing high to the previous 5720 top. The price started to form a bull flag or wedge which transformed into a tight trading range with bottom at the Nifty Spot level of 5720. The breakout failures at corresponding Nifty Spot level of 5720 was weak and Nifty Future fell sharply below the 5720 level but the Nifty Spot level of 5700 provided good support. Nifty Future with a 2 leg pullback attempted to break the Nifty Spot 5700 level. When this attempt failed there was a third push up that resulted in a breakout failure of the trading range low (i.e. Nifty Spot 5720). This break out failure lead to the break of the 5700 Nifty Spot level

Nifty Future Price Action 27 September 2012

Today was expiry day and despite weak global cues Nifty Future opened gap at the Big Round Number 5700. The first two bars were big bear trend bars that brought Nifty Future below the Previous Day high. Nifty Future broke out of the Previous Day high and in a tight upward channel that had started from the Previous day moved till the days high and the opening price of Nifty Future.  Lack of buying at the days high resulted the resumption of the morning session bearishness. Nifty Future broke the days low and tested the Previous Day low and tested the Nifty Spot level of 5648 and closed above it. Today despite being a expiry day there was increased volatility and very good trade entries

Nifty Future Price action 26 September 2012

Reflecting Weak Global cues Nifty Future opened gap down and the first bar was a big bear trend bar that acted as a trading range. This down move could be considered as a continuation of the previous day downward channel and the gap down open as a trend channel overshoot. Price moved back into the downward channel and drifted down to a new low. The break of the Initial Range low and the Trend channel line overshoot lead to a reversal that went all the way till the days high. Here selling pressure resulted in a double top and a closing near the days opening price

Nifty Future Price Action 25th September 2012

Nifty Future opened in a Bullish Note a continuation of the Previous days down ward trend line break. Nifty Future faced a strong reversal in the first hour of trade and moved below the Previous Day Low. The sentiment changed from mildly bullish to Bearish. Nifty Future settled in a tight trading range below the Previous day low. When a breakout to down side failed. Nifty Future resumed the morning session up move. Nifty Future faced resistance at the big round number 5700 and had a deep 3 push pullback that tested the Previous Day low.

Nifty Future Price Action 20th September 2012

Nifty opened gap down below the Previous Day Low and the first bar was a strong Bull trend bar with a shaved head. There was follow through buying that took Nifty Future till a high of 5578. Nifty Future pulled back to 5568 and established a swing low and started to move up in a spike and trend channel. Nifty Future reversed at 5390 just short of the Previous Day Low.  Nifty Future broke the upward trend line and reversed in tight downward sloping channel. Nifty Future transitioned into a trading range at the support from where the 3rd leg push started. At this major swing point Nifty Future had two breakout failures that lead to a second attempt at the Previous Day low. Nifty Future had two breakout failures at the Major Swing High that resulted in a sharp down move that started at 2:40pm till the close. The down move was very strong and did not give any meaningful pullback.

Nifty Future Price Action 18th September 2012

Nifty Future opened at the previous day close and continued the previous days price action. But close to the Big Round Number of 5600 Nifty Future rejected this price sharply and moved above the previous day swing high of 5620. Nifty Future failed to move up till any decision point and spent the rest of the day trying to take out the days open. Nifty Future started moving in a downward channel but after the failure to take out the days low. Nifty Future price drifted into a sideways channel. There were a number of strong trend bars but it lacked follow through in both directions. A trading range day with plenty of breakout failures. All trade opportunities today was on breakout failures.

Nifty Future Price Action 17 Sep 2012

Due to strong overnight cues Nifty Spot opened above the Swing high of 5630. On open there was a strong selloff below the Nifty Spot 5630 level. After the RBI announcement of no rate cuts, the down move resumed till the previous days high. As per the price action setup there was only one good short trade setup. The up move started on weak signal bars and did not have deep pullback for long trade entries. Nifty Future closed the gap but did not fall in the previous days trading range.

Nifty Future Price Action 14 Sep 2012

Nifty Future opened with huge gap up and proceeded to move up on high volumes. This was due to strong Global and Domestic cues. Inflation data was expected which may cause a dampener to the bullish sentiment. A day which opened in a strong note became sluggish due to high inflation data and closed at the level where it was prior to the announcement of the Inflation Data. I have given below the 5-min candlestick chart with my observations.

Nifty Future Price Action 13 Sep 2012

Today was at best do not trade day as Nifty was locked in a severe Bear and Bull fight. It could have transitioned to a big move day had there been a clear winner. One indication of it being a trading range day was lackluster traded volume. But volume does tend to pick up when either the Bulls or Bears lose and the stop losses gets triggered. As trader we have to enter position at high probability trades and wait for the market to play out.

Nifty Future Price Action 12 Sep 2012

The day turned out to be very interesting with two news event outcomes. Nifty Future remained range bound till the IIP Data announcement. On the IIP Data announcement Nifty Future spiked to the days low and sharply recovered. The second attempt of the Bears was more stronger and took out the days low and the upward trend line convincingly. Then the positive news flow of the German Court ruling had a bullish price spike that reversed Nifty Future back to the Days high. Bears again quickly slammed Nifty Future back to the Days low. But Bulls stole the show and strongly closed Nifty Future above the Days high. I have outlined the candle stick bars that have proved to be the turning point to this Bull and Bear saga.

Nifty Price Action 11 - Sep - 2012

Nifty Future opened weak with gap down on poor global cues but moved above the days open. The first attempt to move above the Previous day low failed but after testing the days low Nifty Future successfully moved above the Previous Day’s low. I have given below the 5-min candle stick chart with my observations about the crucial candle stick bars that would give an insight into today’s price action and trade opportunities.

Nifty Future Price Action - 10 Sep 2012

Nifty opened near Saturday’s close due to lack of Global and domestic cues. Nifty Future on open displayed bearish strength that moved it till Saturdays opening price. I have given below the 5-min candle stick chart with my observations about the crucial candle stick bars that would give an insight into today’s price action and trade opportunities.

August 21st 2012 Nifty Future Price Action

Nifty Future on Friday had fallen below the 5380 support turned resistance level after a failed breakout of the 5425 level. The corresponding level in Nifty Spot is 5352 and 5400. Nifty Future had on Friday had closed at the 5380 level. Global and Domestic cues were positive and Nifty Future opened at the Friday close and the test below 5380 was violently rejected and Nifty Future resumed the second attempt at up move. I have given below the 5-min Nifty Future Chart with my observations.

Decision Point Nifty Future Trading Setup

This discretionary trading setup is used by Smart Trader. I have formally decided to give it a name and try to define it in one blog article. The below information would be available in Smart Trader’s market updates and comments section. I have added my thoughts and perspective to it where ever required. I feel the frequently asked questions format would explain this concept nicely.

August 17th 2012 Nifty Future Price Action

Nifty Future opened at 5384 just above the previous day close of 5380. In the last hour of trading in the previous day Nifty Future had a break out failure of the 5380 level . The up move in the morning session today was the continuation of the Break out failure of yesterday.  Nifty Future had a notable Tight Trading Range pattern at the Days high for 2 hour duration. Given below is the Nifty Future 5-min chart with observations.

August 16th 2012 Nifty Future price action

Nifty Future opened inside the previous days last hour range of 5396 to 5415 at 5410 above the previous days close of 5406. Nifty Future immediately with high volume moves below the previous days close of 5406 till the previous days last hour range low of 5396. Given below is the Nifty Future 5 min price chart with notes on the volume based action.

August 14th 2012 Nifty Future Price Action

Today Nifty Future opened at yesterdays close and the price action was an extension of the yesterdays closing 1 hour price range. The volume based price action that played out on an events day was different compared to the previous days event based price action. Inflation data was expected to be announced between 11:00am to 11:30am.

August 13th 2012 Nifty Future Volume Play

Inspired by Smart Trader I am posting my understanding of the market structure. My trading decision is guided by Volume based price action. I have labeled four points in the 5 min chart that I feel where the volume and price action is important. The first trigger for trade entry is always the volume related price action. The first and second target along with stop loss would be based on the Decision points. The premise for the long trade in Nifty Future would be based on the four points.

Trading Log Sample

I have given below a sample of the Trading Log that update continuously during market hours.

Trading Log:
A) Important Announcements expected today
B) SGX Nifty Open High Low Close till 9:15 am, Global Cues
C) Nifty Spot and Nifty Future:
    1) Previous Day Open High Low Close Values
    2) Pivot Levels and Camarillo levels
    3) Low EMA, High EMA, DeMark Values
    4) Fibonacci Ratios
    5) Previous Open Gaps
D) Levels and Opinion Published from Blog Articles
E) Option Strategies and Rationale for today

Market Commentary:

9:15 to 9:45:
9:45 to 11:00:
11:00 to 13:00:
13:00 to 15:00:
15:00 to 15:30:

Executed trades:
{Position}  {Entry Price and time}  {Exit Price and time}  {Lot Size}  {Target}  {Stops}  {Profit in Points Per Lot}  {Rationale}  {Execution}

Did not pull the trigger trades:
{Position}  {Entry Price and time}  {Exit Price and time}  {Target}  {Stops}  {Rationale}  {Why did not execute}

Completely Missed trades:
{Position}  {Entry Price and time}  {Exit Price and time}  {Target}  {Stops}  {Failed to observe or Improvement in Setup required}

Calls Posted in Twitter:
{Position}  {Entry Price and time}  {Exit Price and time}  {Target}  {Stops}  {Any Explanation Given}

Remarks:

        Major Trend:
        Medium Trend:
        Minor Trend:

Trade Adjustment on Option Strategy

To visualize a Trade Adjustment on a Option Strategy. Let us consider the following scenario. Currently Nifty is trading 5248 and based on our market analysis we are bullish on Nifty. We have identified the Diagonal Spread as suited for our analysis. How do we make trade adjustments when the position moves in our favor or against our trade.

Debit Calendar Put Spread for Nifty Option

Assuming that the 200 DMA @ 5134 for Nifty would hold or the strong Fibonacci 50% level of 5080 would hold. Also expecting the 5385 level as a strong resistance. A Debit Calendar Put Spread with one leg having long 1 lot June 2012 expiry 5100PE and on the other leg short 1 lot May 20112 expiry 5200PE.